Kamala Harris’ Odds of Beating Donald Trump After RFK Jr. Suspends Campaign

The odds of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election were tied at 49 percent each as of 5 a.m. ET on Saturday, according to the U.K.-based bookmaker Betfair.
These odds were a slight improvement for Trump from earlier on Friday when Betfair gave him a 48.5 percent chance of victory in November, versus 49.5 percent for Harris.
On Friday evening, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he had made the “heart-wrenching decision” to “suspend” his 2024 White House bid and urged his supporters in battleground states to vote for Trump. However, in solidly red or blue states Kennedy said his backers should still vote for him, claiming he would then have a chance to become president “in a contingent election.”
The change in the Betfair figures is consistent with polling which suggested Kennedy dropping out of the race would provide a boost to Trump. A survey of 1,867 likely U.S. voters conducted by Outward Intelligence between August 18 and 22 and published on Thursday found that if Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race, 59 percent of his voters would lean towards backing Trump against 41 percent for Harris. Separately, an analysis of recent polling by the election website FiveThirtyEight concluded that Kennedy dropping out could flip North Carolina and Nevada in Trump’s favor.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek Saturday’s odds are the first time the two presidential frontrunners had the same odds of victory with the company since April when Joe Biden was the clear favorite for the Democratic nominee.
Newsweek contacted the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presidential campaigns for comment on Saturday by email outside of regular office hours.
Earlier this week, Trump briefly replaced Harris as the Betfair favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, amidst speculation that the vice president’s honeymoon period as Democratic nominee could be coming to a close.
On Thursday, Betfair was offering odds of 5/6 (54.5 percent) on Trump achieving victory in November, against 10/11 (52.4 percent) for Harris.
Analysis by FiveThirtyEight, which weighs opinion surveys based on their perceived reliability and demographic factors, gave Harris a 3.7 percent lead over Trump on Friday. Overall the study put Harris on 47.3 percent of the vote, against 43.6 percent for his Republican rival.
Speaking to Newsweek on Friday, Thomas Gift, who heads the Center on U.S. Politics at University College London, U.K., said Harris is likely to come under greater scrutiny over her policy program in the coming weeks.
He said: “Harris has been basking in adulation and positive media coverage for weeks. But her honeymoon will end. Honeymoons always do. Once she’s forced to get specific on policies, Americans will be reminded of why Harris was rated as one of the most liberal senators in Congress. Her record, and many of her current policy proposals, are arguably far to the left of the median U.S. voter.
“Trump will also get better at knowing what lines of attack work against Harris. Expect to hear the phrase ‘San Francisco liberal’ over and over and over. Just weeks ago, it looked like Trump would cruise to victory. Now, many think the exact opposite. What we know for sure is that a lot can happen between now and Election Day on November 5.”
Update 8/25/24 5:21 a.m. ET: This article’s headline was updated.